MONROE COUNTY MARKET SUPPLY REPORT

MONROE COUNTY MARKET SUPPLY REPORT

For Residential Single Family Listings

Price Range	Historical Data			Proj’d 2011	Total Current Supply	Total # Pending Sales	Current # Listings Available	Current # Months Supply Available
	2008	2009	2010
$25,000-$49,999	20	6	16	26	13	1	12	5.5
$50,000-$74,999	54	44	40	48	17	1	16	4.0
$75,000-$99,999	113	91	95	120	81	11	70	7.0
$100,000-$124,999	163	103	125	135	93	17	76	6.8
$125,000-$149,999	173	153	150	170	106	21	85	6.0
$150,000-$174,999	149	110	125	150	103	17	86	6.9
$175,000-$199,999	126	73	100	115	85	16	69	7.2
$200,000-$224,999	63	52	65	69	37	6	31	5.4
$225,000-$249,999	64	40	43	46	47	11	36	9.4
$250,000-$274,999	44	35	50	34	40	7	33	11.6
$275,000-$299,999	38	22	34	35	28	0	28	9.6
$300,000-$324,999	24	21	32	29	17	3	14	5.8
$325,000-$349,999	17	17	16	18	23	4	19	12.7
$350,000-$374,999	18	16	19	16	18	2	16	12.0
$375,000-$399,999	18	16	21	22	21	0	21	11.5
$400,000-$449,999	19	17	23	22	22	3	19	10.4
$450,000-$499,999	5	12	16	11	17	2	15	16.4
$500,000-$599,999	2	3	10	12	20	0	20	20.0
Over $600,000	16	9	11	14	46	2	44	37.7
Totals:	1126	840	991	1092	834	124	710	7.8

Information obtained by actual listing count from Bloomington Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service as of 9/10/2012

Residential supply report only – Monroe County ONLY Does not include condominiums

Does not include proposed construction Percentage of inventory with pending sales:  14.9%

Market Update Week of Nov 7th

Last week, more signs appeared that things are coming our way in housing. Wednesday the Census Bureau reported that the nation's home ownership rate moved up in the third quarter to 66.1%, slightly ahead of the prior quarter. Some commentators feel the three-year decline in home ownership might be starting to bottom out. Home ownership may have been encouraged by rising rents, with the vacancy rate now up to 9.8%.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) chimed in with a forecast that existing home sales should be up 1% this year, then up another 4.3% next year. Although the median price will fall slightly this year, it's predicted to rise 2.6% in 2012. New home sales, after dropping 4.7% this year, are projected to rise 21.3% in 2012. And this year's 1.8% price hike will be followed by a 3.8% gain next year. Let's hope they're right.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Passion counts for a lot. The relentless intensity and commitment you need to succeed come from enjoying what you do and believing it's worthwhile.

• Review of Last Week 

CLASSIC GREEK DRAMA...The European Union's efforts to avert a Greek tragedy featured a soap opera produced by the Greek government. One day they announced the EU bailout proposal would be put to a vote by Greek citizens, the next day opposing parties agreed to accept it. This melodrama pushed stock prices down, up, down, and after posting gains four weeks in a row, the S&P 500 scored a 2.5% weekly loss. The Fed also contributed, issuing a policy statement citing "a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters" and predicting "the unemployment rate will decline only gradually."

Friday's October Jobs Report revealed employment levels consistent with weak-to-moderate economic growth. Just 80,000 new jobs were added in October, but prior months were revised upward and the unemployment rate edged down from 9.1% to 9.0%. ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes showed business still growing, although very slowly. Consumers are doing their part, with weekly chain store sales UP 3% for the year by one survey and UP 5.2% by another. 

For the week, the Dow ended down 2.0%, to 11983; the S&P 500 was down 2.5%, to 1253; and the Nasdaq slipped 1.9%, to 2686.

Investors worried about the European debt situation flocked to the bond market in droves. Yields and mortgage rates edged down, as bond prices escalated. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up 1.79, at $102.05. National average mortgage rates dropped again, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, and remain at very low levels.

DID YOU KNOW?...This week's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is a survey of people's feelings about their financial situation and the economy. The index was normalized to 100 in 1964.

• This Week’s Forecast  

VERY QUIET ON THE ECONOMIC NEWS FRONT... Following last week's Fed meeting and employment report, this week's sparse economic news provides a nice breather. Initial Unemployment Claims should stay near the 400,000 level. The September Trade Balance is forecast to hold steady, with imports about $45 billion ahead of exports. Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to improve.  

• The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar


Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 7 – Nov 11

Date	Time (ET)	Release	For	Consensus	Prior	Impact
W Nov 9	10:30	Crude Inventories	11/5	NA	1.826M	Moderate
Th Nov 10	08:30	Initial Unemployment Claims	11/5	400K	397K	Moderate
Th Nov 10	08:30	Continuing Unemployment Claims	10/29	3.690M	3.683M	Moderate
Th Nov 10	08:30	Trade Balance	Sep	-$45.8B	-$45.6B	Moderate
F Nov 11	09:55	Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Nov	61.5	60.9	Moderate

 
• Federal Reserve Watch    
 
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Economists do not see a change in the Funds rate through mid-2013. A dramatic rise in inflation could alter that of course. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Dec 13	0%–0.25%
Jan 25	0%–0.25%
Mar 13	0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:	Consensus
Dec 13	<1%
Jan 25	<1%
Mar 13	<1%

Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 17 – Oct 21

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...

One dream that, happily, doesn't seem to be going away is the one we Americans have of owning our own home. In fact, in spite of all the negative news we hear about housing, the percentage of Americans who own their home is still the second highest on record, according to the Census Bureau. Even better, new research reveals that up to two million people are planning to jump into the housing market in the next two years.

The study from a business-to-business media company confirmed that Americans place a high value on homeownership across demographic groups, across the country, even where there have been larger declines in home values. Given today's prices and super low mortgage rates, 72% of homeowners and 59% of renters polled said that right now is a "good" or "very good" time to buy! Another study found that 80% of homeowners plan to buy another home and most view homeownership as one of the best long-term investments.

 

>> This Week’s Forecast

BUILDING NEW HOMES, SELLING EXISTING ONES, CHECKING UP ON INFLATION...

This week gets us back to a look at the housing market. September Housing Starts are expected to be up a tad, just shy of 600,000 new homes a year. But analysts are predicting a slight dip in Existing Home Sales for September, although that figure should still hover near 5 million per year.With the Fed's easy money policies, we have to keep an eye on inflation. For businesses, prices are forecast up slightly for the month, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI). The Fed's big focus is always on the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI). This excludes volatile food and energy prices and is projected to be up a little, but well within the Fed's target range. 

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 17 – Oct 21

Date	Time (ET)	Release	For	Consensus	Prior	Impact
M Oct 17	08:30	Empire State Manufacturing Index	Oct	–4.0	–8.82	Moderate
M Oct 17	09:15	Industrial Production	Sep	0.2%	0.2%	Moderate
M Oct 17	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Sep	77.5%	77.4%	Moderate
Tu Oct 18	08:30	Producer Price Index (PPI)	Sep	0.2%	0.0%	Moderate
Tu Oct 18	08:30	Core PPI	Sep	0.1%	0.1%	Moderate
W Oct 19	08:30	Consumer Price Index (CPI)	Sep	0.3%	0.4%	HIGH
W Oct 19	08:30	Core CPI	Sep	0.2%	0.2%	HIGH
W Oct 19	08:30	Housing Starts	Sep	595K	571K	Moderate
W Oct 19	08:30	Building Permits	Sep	610K	620K	Moderate
W Oct 19	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/15	NA	1.344M	Moderate
W Oct 19	14:00	Fed's Beige Book	Oct	NA	NA	Moderate
Th Oct 20	08:30	Initial Unemployment Claims	10/15	404K	404K	Moderate
Th Oct 20	08:30	Continuing Unemployment Claims	10/8	3.690M	3.670M	Moderate
Th Oct 20	08:30	Existing Home Sales	Sep	4.94M	5.03M	Moderate
Th Oct 20	10:00	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	Oct	–9.6	–17.5	HIGH
Th Oct 20	10:00	Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)	Sep	0.3%	0.3%	Moderate

Does your Agent Have a Side Job??

"Theresa, Is this video really applicable to today?

Aren't agents making money left and right? After all they get a big chunk of the sales price, right?!?"

Well, I hate to break it to you... Selling Real Estate is hard!

To be honest, most agents need a side job to be able to stay above the poverty line.

Don't Believe me? Let's look at some numbers.

Here's a look at some basic numbers:

2011 HHS Poverty Guidelines

Persons in Family	48 Contiguous States and D.C.	Alaska	Hawaii
1	$10,890	$13,600	$12,540
2	14,710	18,380	16,930
3	18,530	23,160	21,320
4	22,350	27,940	25,710
5	26,170	32,720	30,100
6	29,990	37,500	34,490
7	33,810	42,280	38,880
8	37,630	47,060	43,270
For each additional person, add	3,820	4,780	4,390

Okay, Let's say our hypothetical agent is a family of One.

How much volume does one agent need to sell to be above the poverty line?

Assumptions:

1) They work in a traditional Real Estate Firm that starts the commission splits at 50/50  

2) The agent has no other out of pocket business expenses like Marketing and Advertising.

3) The average commission on each sale is 6% which is split between the listing and selling broker 3%-3%

If we want to find the sales volume needed to

 make $10,890 in commission we must first divide it by 3%

$10,890/.03 = $363,000

But then we need to account for the Firm's 50/50 Split

$363,000/.5 = $726,000

To be AT the poverty line as a family of one, the agent must sell $726,000 a year.

You say "Oh but that's easy... aren't homes selling at $300,000 a pop?"

Actually in our market, last year's Average Sales price was $166,271.

That means our agent would need to sell at least 5 homes to be above the poverty line.

You say...

 "I see tons of house for sale, so they must be making it up with lots of volume"

Actually, Last year only 1,335 homes sold

You might think that's a lot

but...

There are roughly 426 Agents in town.

If all agent sold an equal amount of homes, each agent would only sell 3 homes per year and every agent would be living in poverty.

We know life is not fairly distributed, some agents are just better than others...

"So how many agents actually sell over $726,000 per year?"

Good Question!

In 2010, only 167 agents sold more than $726,000!

Which means 259 other agents in town either lived in poverty, had side jobs, or were so wealthy they didn't need money.

Where's my Real Estate Coupon?

I was recently asked....

How Flexible are prices?

Good Question. The official answer... the Property selling price is always subject to the negotiations between buyer and seller-- which is why I strongly suggest one of the best qualities you look for in an agent is good negotiation skills.  That being said, it is hard to say for sure that you can get a specific percentage off with out consideration of things like seller motivation, remaining mortgage balance, and property condition. However, over all, our market statistics depict a market in which properties are selling at about 94-96% list price to value.

Keep in mind that your best “30-50 percent off coupon” in our market today is the interest rate at which you will get your mortgage. 5 years ago we were looking at 6-7% interest.  Today were are seeing under 4% rates. In the long run, that my friend, is your ticket to a great deal!

Historical Home Sales Data

Want to see my numbers?

eeekkk... I feel like you're going in to my underwear drawer.... But here it is...

P.S. If you want an updated copy just Email Me.

Say What?!? Click the picture for a larger version.

If you want your own up to date PDF copy of this historical market data... 

Call Me 812-671-0060

or Email Me