Happy Halloween!

For Families with Children the fall colors bring apple picking, pumpkin carving and trick-or-treating.

But as a parent, this season brings my biggest fears. Child Predators. Lucky for us Monroe County is pretty proactive when it comes to protecting our children.  Convicted sex offenders in Monroe County are required to attend a meeting and movie night during trick-or-treat hours on Halloween.

For those who are still concerned and want to by-pass offenders homes here is a link to a searchable database of Home and Work Addresses for Registered offender.

This year’s official trick-or-treat hours in Bloomington, Ellettsville and the rest of Monroe County are 5:30-8:30 p.m. on Monday, Oct. 31.

Please Trick-or-Treat Safely.

Trick-or-treat Safety tips from the CDC
Sexual Predator Safety tips from Monroe County

Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 17 – Oct 21

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...

One dream that, happily, doesn't seem to be going away is the one we Americans have of owning our own home. In fact, in spite of all the negative news we hear about housing, the percentage of Americans who own their home is still the second highest on record, according to the Census Bureau. Even better, new research reveals that up to two million people are planning to jump into the housing market in the next two years.

The study from a business-to-business media company confirmed that Americans place a high value on homeownership across demographic groups, across the country, even where there have been larger declines in home values. Given today's prices and super low mortgage rates, 72% of homeowners and 59% of renters polled said that right now is a "good" or "very good" time to buy! Another study found that 80% of homeowners plan to buy another home and most view homeownership as one of the best long-term investments.

 

>> This Week’s Forecast

BUILDING NEW HOMES, SELLING EXISTING ONES, CHECKING UP ON INFLATION...

This week gets us back to a look at the housing market. September Housing Starts are expected to be up a tad, just shy of 600,000 new homes a year. But analysts are predicting a slight dip in Existing Home Sales for September, although that figure should still hover near 5 million per year.With the Fed's easy money policies, we have to keep an eye on inflation. For businesses, prices are forecast up slightly for the month, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI). The Fed's big focus is always on the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI). This excludes volatile food and energy prices and is projected to be up a little, but well within the Fed's target range. 

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 17 – Oct 21

Date	Time (ET)	Release	For	Consensus	Prior	Impact
M Oct 17	08:30	Empire State Manufacturing Index	Oct	–4.0	–8.82	Moderate
M Oct 17	09:15	Industrial Production	Sep	0.2%	0.2%	Moderate
M Oct 17	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Sep	77.5%	77.4%	Moderate
Tu Oct 18	08:30	Producer Price Index (PPI)	Sep	0.2%	0.0%	Moderate
Tu Oct 18	08:30	Core PPI	Sep	0.1%	0.1%	Moderate
W Oct 19	08:30	Consumer Price Index (CPI)	Sep	0.3%	0.4%	HIGH
W Oct 19	08:30	Core CPI	Sep	0.2%	0.2%	HIGH
W Oct 19	08:30	Housing Starts	Sep	595K	571K	Moderate
W Oct 19	08:30	Building Permits	Sep	610K	620K	Moderate
W Oct 19	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/15	NA	1.344M	Moderate
W Oct 19	14:00	Fed's Beige Book	Oct	NA	NA	Moderate
Th Oct 20	08:30	Initial Unemployment Claims	10/15	404K	404K	Moderate
Th Oct 20	08:30	Continuing Unemployment Claims	10/8	3.690M	3.670M	Moderate
Th Oct 20	08:30	Existing Home Sales	Sep	4.94M	5.03M	Moderate
Th Oct 20	10:00	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	Oct	–9.6	–17.5	HIGH
Th Oct 20	10:00	Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)	Sep	0.3%	0.3%	Moderate

Does your Agent Have a Side Job??

"Theresa, Is this video really applicable to today?

Aren't agents making money left and right? After all they get a big chunk of the sales price, right?!?"

Well, I hate to break it to you... Selling Real Estate is hard!

To be honest, most agents need a side job to be able to stay above the poverty line.

Don't Believe me? Let's look at some numbers.

Here's a look at some basic numbers:

2011 HHS Poverty Guidelines

Persons in Family	48 Contiguous States and D.C.	Alaska	Hawaii
1	$10,890	$13,600	$12,540
2	14,710	18,380	16,930
3	18,530	23,160	21,320
4	22,350	27,940	25,710
5	26,170	32,720	30,100
6	29,990	37,500	34,490
7	33,810	42,280	38,880
8	37,630	47,060	43,270
For each additional person, add	3,820	4,780	4,390

Okay, Let's say our hypothetical agent is a family of One.

How much volume does one agent need to sell to be above the poverty line?

Assumptions:

1) They work in a traditional Real Estate Firm that starts the commission splits at 50/50  

2) The agent has no other out of pocket business expenses like Marketing and Advertising.

3) The average commission on each sale is 6% which is split between the listing and selling broker 3%-3%

If we want to find the sales volume needed to

 make $10,890 in commission we must first divide it by 3%

$10,890/.03 = $363,000

But then we need to account for the Firm's 50/50 Split

$363,000/.5 = $726,000

To be AT the poverty line as a family of one, the agent must sell $726,000 a year.

You say "Oh but that's easy... aren't homes selling at $300,000 a pop?"

Actually in our market, last year's Average Sales price was $166,271.

That means our agent would need to sell at least 5 homes to be above the poverty line.

You say...

 "I see tons of house for sale, so they must be making it up with lots of volume"

Actually, Last year only 1,335 homes sold

You might think that's a lot

but...

There are roughly 426 Agents in town.

If all agent sold an equal amount of homes, each agent would only sell 3 homes per year and every agent would be living in poverty.

We know life is not fairly distributed, some agents are just better than others...

"So how many agents actually sell over $726,000 per year?"

Good Question!

In 2010, only 167 agents sold more than $726,000!

Which means 259 other agents in town either lived in poverty, had side jobs, or were so wealthy they didn't need money.

Where's my Real Estate Coupon?

I was recently asked....

How Flexible are prices?

Good Question. The official answer... the Property selling price is always subject to the negotiations between buyer and seller-- which is why I strongly suggest one of the best qualities you look for in an agent is good negotiation skills.  That being said, it is hard to say for sure that you can get a specific percentage off with out consideration of things like seller motivation, remaining mortgage balance, and property condition. However, over all, our market statistics depict a market in which properties are selling at about 94-96% list price to value.

Keep in mind that your best “30-50 percent off coupon” in our market today is the interest rate at which you will get your mortgage. 5 years ago we were looking at 6-7% interest.  Today were are seeing under 4% rates. In the long run, that my friend, is your ticket to a great deal!

Twitter, twitter, twitter

Hello It's me again.

Can't get enough of me?  Want to get to know me a little more personally? Want to follow my every move (although I doubt that I'm as important as Lady Gaga or Justin Beiber)... guess what... I'm on Twitter!


Twitter: TheresaSicinski
or
Text follow TheresaSicinski to 40404 (Standard carrier charges apply)

Congrats Mark and Ruth

An Educational Tour of Bloomington, Indiana